With more than 150,000 people testing Covid-19 positively every day in the United States, the country is now holding its breath together as it expects the consequences of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend to be reflected in the number of Covid-19 cases.
Currently, the seven-day average of new cases per day in the United States is just over 150,000, declining slightly after peaking at 172,000 on Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving. The number of cases began to rise in mid-October and began to rise in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving. The country violated 100,000; 150,000 and finally 200,000 new cases a day for the first time in November.
While the average number of new cases appears to have been flat since mid-November, public health experts warn that the number of cases is likely to approach after Thanksgiving as millions of people ignore homeless requests and avoid mixed family or social gatherings.
According to a report by the Road Safety Agency, 1.17 million people were checked at airport security checkpoints on Sunday – the highest since the start of the pandemic. By comparison, about 2.8 million people were screened on the same Sunday in 2019.
In an interview with NBC on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci outlined the nation’s top infectious disease expert in terms of the number of trips and gatherings in the number of cases.
“Unfortunately, we expect to pass in the next few weeks, in December, it may be that we put the wave on top of the already existing wave,” Fauci said.
Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, said that although many people across the country took precautions, it was likely that many others were exposed to the virus during the holiday.
“What everyone is expecting this week and next week will be reports of Thanksgiving,” Murray said. “The resulting hospital care will be seen around mid-December, and then we’ll see people dying from Covid, acquired during Thanksgiving, by the end of December, until Christmas.”
The nature of the incubation period for Covid-19 means that it can take up to two weeks for us to fully recognize how much spread has occurred during Thanksgiving. This delay, coupled with the short time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas, closely following the New Year, may mean that people don’t realize the danger of getting together at Thanksgiving.
“People may think that if Thanksgiving hasn’t changed the prevalence, I can make Christmas safe. It’s almost certainly wrong thinking, but the data alone can make it very difficult to convince people just because of the short time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, ”Murray said.
Many hospitals in the country are already running out of room quickly as they deal with Covid-19 hospital treatment due to the rise in cases. The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 has been steadily rising since the end of October.
On November 30, 96,039 people were hospitalized with the virus – the highest since the start of the pandemic – data from the Covid Tracking Project. The number of Covid-related daily deaths, the increase in which usually follows the increase in hospitalizations, often exceeds 1,000 per day. The total number of deaths in the United States is close to 270,000.
During the epidemic, previous outbreaks of the virus were concentrated in some regions, with the north-eastern parts most severely affected in the spring, influxes in the sun during the summer, and thorns in the midwest in the fall.
But as the United States winters, Covid-19 is no longer concentrated in a single region. States are considered “red zones” in all regions where the positivity rate exceeds 10%. According to Johns Hopkins University, only seven states have a positivity rate below 5%, with the rate increasing in the vast majority of states.
Because the power to deal with the virus rests primarily with state and local leaders, some officials have begun to enforce stricter restrictions or threaten to increase the number of cases.
Rhina Island Governor Gina Raimondo has issued a two-week home residence order that began on Monday. Some leisure businesses, including bowling alleys and theaters, as well as bars, will be forced to close during the two-week period. The state has opened two on-site hospitals with a total of 900 beds as state hospitals have reached their Covid-19 capacity.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said stricter restrictions on Covid-19 could be around the corner as the number of people hospitalized with the virus has increased. “Perhaps we could take a break in New York,” he said, referring to the state’s shutdown in March, when all businesses except core businesses were closed.
California Governor Gavin Newsom also said he is considering similar austerity measures in counties where hospitals are overcrowded.
Murray stressed that if travelers and gatherers stay home during Thanksgiving, and if people take cautious measures toward Christmas and New Year, the dreaded boom in cases can be alleviated.
“It’s not inevitable that things will go wrong.” Whatever Thanksgiving has done with our spread, it’s already happened, so that growth has happened, ”Murray said. “We can see that this terrible future is coming, but there are ways to avoid it.”