Eastern Michigan is definitely in line with the accumulating snow earlier this week. However, the tendency was for the heaviest snow to continue to shift east.
We look at a number of weather computer models with a given storm system. We, meteorologists, then use the experience to find out which model has the most likely prediction. Finally, when computer models converge with a similar prediction, we know that the models have a very good idea of what will happen.
We are now holding this Saturday morning where the models mostly agree and give a consistent and easily plausible monthly forecast. The only situation I question with this storm is a secondary piece of the weather system that is projected to move west to eastern Lower Michigan. This situation does happen, but it is a bit rare.
So there are three changes in what you have potentially seen in the last 24 hours. The first half of the snow system will be quite weak, with temperatures around 35 degrees digesting the accumulations. The trend of the heaviest snow shifting south and east to Ontario and Ohio continues, but is now only 20 miles in the last 24 hours. The biggest change is that a second piece of the storm system is projected to return west toward the Northeast and could bring in a few more centimeters of snow on Tuesday evening and Wednesday.
The snowfall forecast graphic below should be used to get an overview of how much snow you can reach in the area. At the tip of the thumb, the maximum amount of snow can be one to two inches.
Here is the National Meteorological Service’s monthly forecast for Tuesday morning, December 1, 2020. Keep in mind that in the next 24 hours, there may still be snowfall after 7 p.m.
Snow above 1 várható is expected in Coldwater, Lansing, Saginaw and east. 2-3 Ar snow is expected around Ann Arbor and Detroit. In the eastern parts of Huron and Sanilac counties it can fall 3-4 ″ snow.
Below, we review the forecasts for the raw model, showing that the forecasts are quite similar. Remember, the forecasts below include the entire snow section of the weather system, and the snow will end on Wednesday.
Caution: do not concentrate on the highest snow numbers. It will probably melt a few inches.
In the difficult area, I would cut everything by 2 ″ as there will be compaction and melting.
But you can definitely see where the heaviest snow is falling and what accumulations we can expect.
Snow begins on Monday and is difficult to accumulate in daylight. The snow continues from Monday evening to Tuesday morning and may increase again on Wednesday.