Joe From Scranton did not regain working class


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Democrats have been preaching the gospel of demographic change for years.

As the country became more diverse, they argued that voters would inevitably decide in their favor and give their party an unbeatable advantage.

Well, the country is more racially diverse than ever. But according to exit polls, Joe Biden lost his place among Latin, black and Asian-American voters in 2020 compared to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance.

Demography, it turns out, is not a political destiny. But diplomas can only be.

The easiest way to understand the results of the 2020 elections – and perhaps the changing state of our politics – is through the education ballot. Voters with a college degree flocked to Mr. Biden, who appeared in the suburbs as the decisive electoral bloc. Those who continued to flee the Democratic Party without them.

“The big picture is that the Democratic Party is increasingly reflecting the cultural values ​​and political preferences of educated white people,” said David Shor, an adviser to Democratic campaigns and organizations. “Culturally, working-class, non-white people have more in common with working-class proteins.”

The shifts were within boundaries: colored voters continued to overwhelmingly support Mr. Biden and cling to the Democratic candidate as they had for decades. But these small swings point to the possibility of a broader rearrangement in American politics. Political parties are, after all, dynamic. Coalitions can and can change.

Think about how the Democrats have won over the last four years. In 2018, affluent, diversified inner-ring suburbs were turned over, and their margins accumulated in the cities to gain control of the House of Representatives. Mr. Biden followed the same path to the presidency: According to an analysis by the New York Times, he improved Mrs. Clinton’s performance in suburban counties by an average of about five percentage points.

What else do these areas have in common? They are more likely to be dominated by highly qualified voters.

One way to examine this county by county is to look at the number of voters doing white or blue-collar work. (I know your buddy never graduated from college and is now killing as a real estate agent. Based on the available economic data, this is not a perfect indicator, but a very good substitute for education.)

The results were striking. According to Economic Innovation researchers, most of the 265 counties are dominated by blue-collar workers – in areas where at least 40 per cent of employed adults work in construction, services or other non-professional areas – Mr Biden won only 15 Group, bipartisan political research group.

In the county, the blue-collar workforce won by Mr. Biden averaged about 23 percent. In the counties won by President Trump, blue-collar workers accounted for an average of 31 percent of the workforce.

This is not a new trend. Democrats have been trading for decades with the support of union members for wider support of professional classes. And the GOP, once a party of white-college voters, has found increasing support among working white voters.

Many democratic primary voters saw Mr. Biden in a unique position to cut into the Republican advantage on the part of the working class. For decades, he built his political brand on him from Scranton, Paest, who became just another guy who traveled by train to work. In the last few weeks, the exclamation of his campaign was, “This is the choice between Scranton and Park Avenue.”

But Mr. Biden did worse than Mrs. Clinton in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008 in counties dominated by blue-collar workers.

This result should frighten democratic strategists about the future of their party, Mr Shor said, because of the structural dynamics similar to an electoral college, which provides political influence in rural areas far in excess of population size.

If Democrats are unable to win blue-collar workers in less populated areas – or at least reduce some of their losses – it will be very difficult for the Senate or the White House to win. And when Republicans retain state legislation, Democrats may find themselves cutting out these friendlier suburban home locations as the districts are redrawn after the census.

“It’s very hard to imagine taking the Senate toward the end of the decade.” said Mr. Shor. “And it would be very difficult to just win the presidency. Our institutions are very biased specifically against this coalition that we are putting together. “


Georgia is on my mind this week. (Yes, I know, a low-hanging cliché.)

Senate control, depending on the two election elections there, the political world pours money and resources into the state. But as we reported on it this week, things get a little… more complicated.

Not surprisingly, the cause of political chaos is President Trump. While he continues to make unfounded accusations about Georgia’s presidential election results – a state he lost – Republicans will be nervous that his attacks will reduce their participation in the January 5 runoff.

Some of Trump’s allies in the state have encouraged Conservatives to boycott the election or write in Mr. Trump’s name – an option not even included in the run-down vote. Although Mr Trump and his campaign tried to distance themselves from this effort, they continued to attack Republican Governor Brian Kemp and other government election officials. Some Republican strategists were concerned that the rhetoric could further alienate suburban voters who helped Mr. Trump settle his loss in Georgia, but could be more receptive to Republican outgoing candidates, incumbent senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

Mr. Trump is scheduled to campaign with them on Saturday in Gaosta, Valdosta. Republicans are unsure whether what they have to say can do more harm than good, especially if they are still unable to set aside their own loss of personal loss.

… This is the new starting point for the negotiations on the new epidemic reduction bill.

As coronavir virus cases soared and showed signs of economic weakening, Democrats made a big concession – demanding at least $ 2 trillion – to Republicans and the Trump government to produce compromise legislation.

In parallel with the end of months of congressional stalemate, the adoption of incentive legislation could help the new Biden administration take office on a slightly stronger economic footing.

I didn’t think anything could surpass Rudy Giuliani’s dripping face.

I was wrong.


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