Here’s the latest news about the snow system, which runs from Monday to Tuesday in Lower Michigan.
All the data has really become consistent over the last two days. This does not mean that there will be no smaller snow area, but the overall picture of snow forecast should be good. On Monday morning, we can skip to higher-resolution short-term data and see if there are smaller pockets with more snow.
Here’s a look at the start of the snow.
Snow mixed with rain begins Monday morning. Monday’s daytime temperature will still be a few degrees above freezing, making it hard for snow to stick to roads and grass.
On Monday morning, the northwest extent of the snow refers to approximately where the trailing edge of the snow remains for the entire system. Accumulating snow occurs southeast of the Kalamazoo-Lansing-Alma-Saginaw-Bay City line.
Here’s a predictive animation that shows the snow turning around by Tuesday night.
When it’s past the snow on Tuesday night, I would call it 2-4 snow in the accumulating snow area, and it could be 5-6 inches in the middle of the thumb.
One thing to keep in mind about computer models: you’ll often see a forecast of total snowfall performance. But as this snow system melts, the snow will melt. So I like to look at the snow depth forecast that can count on melting. Even better, look at the man-made snow forecast, such as the following from the National Meteorological Service. We, meteorologists, take all the factors into account for you and make a forecast.
Currently, it appears that 3 ″ and 4 ″ snow will fall throughout Detroit. Ann Arbor, Jackson and Flint are in the 2 ″ – 3 ″ area. Saginaw and Bay City should only be between 1 ″ and 2 ″. Kalamazoo and Lansing only get 1 ″ or less. Grand Rapids and Muskegon just need to dust off.
The eastern half of the Thumb should be between 4 ″ and 6 ″, and there may be isolated spots near the shore that can be larger than 6 ″.
Monday morning roads should be warm enough to melt from the snow. Monday night roads will be marginal for snow to stick. Tuesday morning will be a different story, the road surface is below freezing.