The Memo: The GOP thinks after Trump

Republicans are wondering what direction their party will take from here, now that it’s finally crystal clear. President TrumpVenezuelan judge Donald John Trump has sentenced six U.S. oil chiefs to prison, Trump says he will leave the White House if Biden appoints an Electoral College winner. leaves the White House in January.

Two major issues dominate. First of all, what role will Trump himself look for? Second, is the more populist and nationalist trend right in the future?

“I think that’s the biggest issue in American politics right now. Is the party moving forward on Trump’s worldview, or is it rather calibrated as a more traditional Conservative party? said Alex Conant, a GOP strategist who worked for Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio Rubio: Hill’s morning report – presented by the UAE embassy in Washington – COVID-19 fears surround Thanksgiving Rubio opposes Biden’s cabinet election Democrats reject Biden’s calls to cabinet selections(R-Fla.) 2016 Presidential Campaign.

Conant, like other Republican figures speaking to The Hill, said it was too early to answer this fundamental question.

There are a number of factors swirling when the GOP leads to the best progress.

Trump eventually lost by a much more decisive difference than what election night looked like. President-elect Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump says he will leave the White House if Biden appoints the Electoral College winner. The note: Biden is on a hard path with the promise of healing the nation. The United States records 2,300 COVID-19 deaths as the epidemic wears over it was defeated nationwide by about 4 percentage points and 6 million votes. Biden’s electoral college victory was clear, even if it was decided with slightly stricter differences.

Trump is now George HW Bush’s first incumbent president since 1992 who lost the re-election battle.

Trump, on the other hand, received about 74 million votes, the highest amount ever a GOP president or candidate. It has exceeded the predictions of opinion polls.

Trump may be the most divisive president of modern times in the nation as a whole, but by far the most popular Republican in the country with a GOP base. In the most recent Economist-YouGov poll, conducted Nov. 15-17, 91 percent of Republican voters viewed it favorably, with 88 percent approving of his performance in office.

Trump may be looking for another cycle in the White House in 2024. If he did that and won, his second inauguration would be 78 years old – the same age as Biden now.

Even if Trump finally decides against such a race, floating the opportunity is the obvious way to maintain relevance and stay in the national spotlight. This would also freeze much of the rest of the 2024 GOP field.

“I just don’t see him walking away,” said one of the Republican strategists associated with the White House. “He likes to be at the center of American life.”

Others say the mere fact of leaving office would significantly reduce Trump’s influence.

The party’s direct leadership “will be influenced by how much influence it has even when it is no longer the most powerful man on earth,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster. “The dynamics will be very different. We will see how much support he can keep on his supporters if the presidency no longer has the power. “

Trump has changed the party in a way that cannot be easily rolled back. The protectionism of trade, the harsh nature of immigration, and the general skepticism of multilateral institutions — and the U.S. military adventuring overseas — all represent significant rifts in Republican orthodoxy.

There is little evidence that these changes are not popular with Republican voters. Trump won more voter votes while losing the presidential race than the GOP candidate Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyBiden’s teams meet with Trump administrative agencies Paul Ryan urges Trump to accept results: “The election is over” Trump’s interim order follows a chorus of criticism from the GOP MORE In 2012, and his loss was not the late Sen blowing out. John McCainJohn Sidney McCain, Juan Williams: Obama’s severe warnings about right-wing media Democrats’ confusion justifies McSally outside Biden’s campaign, staff asked for unmasked photo to be broken in Capitol (R-Ariz.) He suffered in 2008 from President Obama.

The Republican party also performed better than expected in this year’s senate and house elections, greatly undermining the idea Trump’s critics were urging that he would lead the GOP to electoral ruin.

“It absolutely shifted the party, basically, in a good way,” said Brad Blakeman, who served in the senior position of former President George W. Bush’s White House.

Blakeman, however, acknowledged that Trump’s fiercely aggressive personal behavior ultimately meant the rejection of many voters. The party’s most likely next move, he said, would be a broadly Trump-like political agenda moderated by a tastier performance.

“Rhetoric will ease, although the need for aggression in politics is not a bad thing,” Blakeman said. – Just talking is not a bad thing.

Speculation is already swirling around potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates if Trump doesn’t run.

Sen. Tom CottonTom Bryant Cotton, O’Brien in 2024: “There’s all kinds of speculation out there.” Loeffler isolates after possible COVID-19 infection. More conservatives are breaking up with Trump over election needs (R-Ark.) He is often referred to as a possible heir to the Trump cloak, without turbulent personality traits. He was the governor of South Carolina Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyO’Brien’s 2024 speech: “There’s all kinds of speculation out there” (R), who also served as U.S. ambassador to the United States under Trump, was able to appeal to both the Trump wing and the more traditional elements of the party. Sen. Josh HawleyJoshua (Josh) David Hawley, O’Brien in 2024 (R-Mo.) He also has fans.

But there is concern among party strategists about a Republican party shaped by Trump’s image. They are worried that the situation in the election-critical suburbs of America is weakening than anything else.

“I think the withdrawal of the election is that whoever wins the suburb wins the White House in the foreseeable future,” Conant said. “We split the government because neither party has a consistently winning message in the suburbs – and that’s a challenge for Republicans over the next few years.”

Ayres noted that Trump has accelerated the shift, with Republicans becoming weaker in the suburbs but holding themselves stronger in rural areas and small towns in America than before.

But he warned: “clearly trade in fast-growing suburbs is not a good long-term bet for slower-growing rural areas”.

One thing is sure. The Trump era resonates within the GOP for a long time. And there is no guarantee it will end when you leave the White House.

“Because of the populism that has developed in America, we will never return to the traditional Republican party,” said GOP strategist with White House ties.

– They don’t want traditional politicians.

Memo Niall Stanage’s report, focusing primarily on Donald Trump’s presidency.